XRP is trading near the top of its month-long consolidation band, with the price stuck between roughly $1.35 and $1.45. With April nearing its end—just six days left until the month closes—will the XRP price break upward before the deadline, or will it slip lower and trigger a faster downside move?
Monthly Breakout Or Breakdown?
In a fresh technical update shared on social media, analyst Bull Winkle says the next major confirmation for the XRP price will come from how it behaves on the monthly time frame. According to Winkle, bulls need a monthly close above $1.90.
He frames that level as more than just a random resistance area, describing it as a demand-zone “hold” signal and also a reclaim of the 2021 resistance level, now acting as support.
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If the XRP price can clear $1.90 on a monthly close, Winkle argues it would set the stage for retests higher up the chart—specifically opening the door to $2.90 revisits.
That bullish scenario includes a significant recovery math. If the XRP price climbs toward $1.90 ahead of April’s close from current trading levels of $1.43, it would represent about a 32% recovery. Additionally, a potential rally of 102% up to the $2.90 area.
On the other side, Winkle lays out what would count as a clear breakdown for bears. He says the most decisive bearish signal would be a monthly close below $1.27.
In his view, that would open the path for a faster move toward $1, with the potential for an Elliott Wave C-style correction that could land the XRP price in the broader $0.60 to $0.75 range. That bearish estimate would be severe: it could equate to around a 58% decline from the current trading zone.
What The XRP Price Needs Next
While those price levels are the headline, Winkle also emphasized momentum context using the relative strength index (RSI) indicator.
He notes that at 47, the monthly RSI is not showing divergence in either direction yet. For him, that means the market has not reached a point where the next move is fully “high conviction” on the monthly setup.
Instead, the RSI needs to do something more decisive—either bouncing strongly above 55 to confirm a bullish phase, or pressing below 40 with a trajectory toward the 30 area, which he describes as a capitulation-type bottom.
That brings the focus to the immediate battleground. Winkle’s summary of where the XRP price stands is straightforward: the $1.27 to $1.43 range is where the outcome is likely being decided.
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Beyond the chart levels and RSI, Winkle pointed to a separate signal he believes is already strengthening the case for a potential upside leg—something supply-side, rather than purely technical.
In another post, he highlighted that “seven billion XRP just vanished from exchanges,” claiming this exchange outflow matters because when the altcoin sits on exchanges, it represents liquid, sell-side supply that can be sold at any moment.
Once that supply leaves—whether to cold wallets, institutional custody, or longer-term holding structures—he argues the immediate downward pressure for the XRP price can ease.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com