XRP is trying to build stability after a strong April that pushed prices to the upside. The latest momentum, however, is running into a familiar challenge: the token is consolidating around the $1.39 area and is now dealing with key hurdles before it can meaningfully extend the recovery.
Two Catalysts Through May 21
In a recent report, market expert Sam Daodu pointed to two catalysts scheduled between now and May 21. His view is that XRP may need more than one of those events to come through to clear $1.45.
One of the near-term drivers Daodu referenced is linked to the “Project Freedom” announced by President Trump in the Middle East. If ships are able to move through the Strait of Hormuz as planned, oil prices could drop, in Daodu’s view.
That kind of easing often supports risk assets, and XRP could benefit if crypto follows the same bullish tone as the wider market. In this scenario, the relief in energy costs would help maintain the current recovery rather than allowing gains to quickly fade.
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That said, the report frames the CLARITY Act as the main catalyst most likely to decisively change XRP’s chart behavior—particularly the ability to break and hold above $1.45.
The reasoning is straightforward: greater clarity around the bill could unlock meaningful buying demand. Daodu cites Standard Chartered’s estimate that if the bill clears the committee, it could trigger an additional $4 billion to $8 billion in extra XRP ETF inflows.
In his explanation, that influx would likely be more than enough to absorb an “overhead” estimate of 1.16 billion XRP tied to the $1.44–$1.45 cost basis. If that absorption happens, it could provide the fuel to push XRP through $1.50 and beyond.
XRP Three-Way Breakdown
Looking ahead, Daodu lays out three possible scenarios for XRP over the near term. In the bullish case, XRP could move from roughly $1.50 to $1.70. This outcome would depend on Project Freedom proceeding without a strong pushback from Iran.
The bullish scenario also depends on timing around the CLARITY Act. Daodu suggests that a scheduled markup before mid-May could bring institutional buyers back at a critical moment.
If institutional demand returns in time to absorb the $1.45 cost-basis wall, XRP could be set up for a clean break above $1.45. Once that level is conquered, the report argues that $1.50 would come into play and XRP could then target roughly $1.65 to $1.70.
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In the base case, the expected path is more cautious. XRP would trade in a range of about $1.38 to $1.45, with the most likely outcome being a retest of $1.45 again. However, Daodu warns that this retest may not be enough to break the pattern of resistance. This scenario assumes that the CLARITY Act’s markup is delayed again.
The bearish case is tied most directly to geopolitical disruption. If Iran retaliates against Project Freedom, Daodu says the current rally could unwind quickly.
With risk sentiment deteriorating, the report expects support around $1.40 to come under pressure, potentially giving way to $1.30 as the next major floor. If a direct US–Iran conflict escalates again, the bearish scenario becomes more severe, and XRP could even drift toward $1.20.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com