Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects a market caught between weakening demand and a deteriorating macro backdrop. After a failed breakout above range highs, BTC has retraced toward its monthly open, with upside moves increasingly driven by short liquidations rather than sustained spot demand. At the same time, institutional flows have shifted, with ETF outflows signalling active de-risking and a clear slowdown in absorption.
We analyse whether Bitcoin can stabilise within this range, or if tightening liquidity and macro pressures will drive a deeper structural reset.