A popular crypto analyst believes Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is heading much lower based on one key indicator.
In a new market update, Benjamin Cowen tells his 993,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin remains in a bear market after hitting resistance at the the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Cowen says the 200-day SMA is an accurate indicator of future Bitcoin prices, citing 2018 and 2022 as previous examples when BTC hit the 200-day SMA and then crashed.
Cowen outlines two possible bearish Bitcoin scenarios that could play out in the coming months based on historic precedence.
“Rejection off the 200-day: the more bearish view is it comes down into May, holds there for a little, and then sells off into June, and then sweeps the February low like it did at the end of 2018. From there, you could have a counter trend rally in July and August, before then going lower into October, and then marking the market cycle bottom.”
Looking at his chart, Cowen suggests that Bitcoin will bottom at around $46,000.
In the other bearish scenario, Cowen says Bitcoin would have another big rally into the $80,000 range before bottoming.
“You can see we always tag that .382 level [Fibonacci retracement level] before you get that final drop… before really selling off into the the end of the bear market…
And so there’s another path that would call for Bitcoin to drop into June. I get all beared up again, and then it just goes right back up to the highs [around $87,000]. People dunk on me again, and then you sell off into into Q4.”
Bitcoin is trading for $76,861 at time of writing, flat on the day.
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