The past week was influenced by inflation and production data, as well as changes in the geopolitical environment. The releases confirmed moderate economic activity and persistent inflation pressure, providing no clear signal for a shift toward a softer Federal Reserve policy. As a result, expectations of a prolonged period of high interest rates remained in place. At the same time, some easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz led to a decline in oil prices, which put pressure on the dollar. Against this backdrop, demand for safe-haven assets remained strong, supporting gold and providing support to bitcoin.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed Friday at 1.1725, confidently breaking above the 1.1600-1.1620 zone, which had served as a key resistance in previous weeks. The weekly dynamics indicated an accelerated repricing of the dollar toward weakness. The nearest resistance now shifts to 1.1765-1.1830. In case of further growth, the next target may be the 1.1900-1.1930 area. The nearest support is located at 1.1670-1.1680, followed by the 1.1600-1.1620 zone. As long as the price remains above this area, the baseline scenario for the pair stays neutral-to-bullish.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed the week at 73,380. Since the beginning of April, the market has recovered from the 65,700 area, but a sustained breakout from the wide sideways range has not yet occurred. The nearest resistance is now located at 73,900-74,000. Only a consolidation above this zone would allow for a move toward 76,000 and further to 80,000. Support is located at 68,800-70,000, followed by 65,500-66,500. While BTC/USD remains below 74,000, the scenario stays neutral with a bearish bias within the sideways structure.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent closed the week at 95.20 per barrel. After a sharp drop on April 08 to 90.40, the market partially stabilised, but the 97.00-98.00 zone has not yet been regained. The nearest resistance is now located at 97.00-98.00, followed by 100.00. Support is located at 94.00, then 92.20-92.80 and 88.80. As long as the price remains below 97.00-98.00, the scenario for Brent remains neutral-to-bearish. Instability in the Middle East continues to support high volatility, so under current conditions, priority should be given to the geopolitical factor, while technical analysis becomes secondary.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed the week at 4,750 per ounce. After rising to 4,857, the market entered a correction phase but managed to hold within the 4,750-4,800 zone. The nearest resistance is located at 4,800-4,850, followed by 5,000. Support is located at 4,650-4,685, then 4,525-4,550 and 4,350-4,400. As long as the price remains above 4,650-4,685, the scenario stays neutral-to-bullish, although after strong gains over the past three weeks, the market appears overheated.📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
In the coming week, market attention will again shift to inflation and consumer data. On April 14, PPI and Core PPI (producer price indices) will be released in the US, which may influence expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy. On April 15, US crude oil inventories will be published. On April 16, CPI in the Eurozone, GDP data from China and the UK, as well as US initial jobless claims will be released. These publications may set the tone for the dollar, euro and commodity markets in the second half of the week.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bullish while the price remains above 1.1600-1.1620. BTC/USD – neutral with a bearish bias within the sideways range while the price remains below 74,000. Brent – neutral-to-bearish below 97.00-98.00. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bullish above 4,650-4,685.
