While others argue that the Bitcoin price has already found its bottom and could be gearing up for a bullish reversal, one crypto analyst has rejected these claims, expecting further downside instead. According to Marmot, a crypto expert on X, Bitcoin has not yet reached its true price floor. He warns that the flagship cryptocurrency could crash below $45,000 before any sustainable recovery to the upside takes shape.
Bitcoin Price Action Mirrors 2022 Bear Market
In a recent X post, Marmot shared a bearish analysis of Bitcoin, comparing its current bear market to past cycles. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s recent price action closely mirrors patterns seen in the 2022 bear market.
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Notably, Bitcoin has already fallen more than 40% from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. Since that peak, the flagship cryptocurrency has trended downward, recording brief price rallies, which Marmot has described as “fake recoveries.” These upside moves temporarily lure investors into the market before prices reverse sharply downwards, leading to losses.
To support his bearish outlook, Marmot has divided Bitcoin’s current bear market into three phases. The first phase was completed after the cryptocurrency crashed by over 54%, now trading at around above $74,000. According to him, the market is now in the second bear phase, a period characterized by repeated bull traps, fakeouts, and continued volatility designed to wipe out short-term investors.
The most recent bull trap was observed after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, which sent Bitcoin surging briefly above $73,000. However, this rally proved short-lived as the price quickly reversed toward $71,000 before rebounding again above $74,000 at the time of writing.
As bear traps repeatedly wipe out more shorts and long positions get caught in successive bull traps, Marmot argues that Bitcoin is now entering the final phase of its bear market. He believes that this stage is where Bitcoin’s true bottom is most likely to form.
Analyst Forecasts The “Real” Bitcoin Bottom
In his chart, Marmot placed Bitcoin’s projected bottom below the $43,700 level. With the price currently hovering around $74,000, this implies a potential decline of over 40% and a drop of more than 65% from its all-time high.
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Before reaching that low, Marmot predicts that the market could experience one final crash to shake out the remaining market participants. His price chart shows that Bitcoin experienced a bear trap and a bull trap before ultimately bottoming during the 2022 cycle. Notably, the current cycle is almost perfectly repeating the same pattern, with BTC’s bull and bear trap already complete as the market gears up for its next bottom crash.
The chart also shows that rather than a straight decline to the projected price floor, BTC could first drop to $45,500, stage a brief rebound, and then hit a bottom before recovering and climbing back above $45,000 as its new bullish phase begins.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com