More than $4 billion in long positions now sit within striking distance of liquidation near $77,000 — a figure that underscores just how much is riding on Bitcoin holding its current footing above $80,000.
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Bears Keep Rebuilding, Keep Getting Burned
Data tracked by Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. shows that close to $8 billion in short positions have been forcibly closed since early February, with the largest single-day spike hitting $737 million on Feb. 13.
The liquidations did not come all at once. They arrived in three separate waves stretching from February through April, each one triggered as bearish traders rebuilt positions at higher price levels — only to get caught again as the price held firm.
Daily liquidation volumes had dropped to a range of $2 to $28 million before spiking back to $175 million on May 4. That jump came during an otherwise quiet week, pointing to fresh short exposure being built near $80,000.
Reports say the recurring pattern shows traders consistently betting against the price — and consistently being forced out.
Source: Axel Adler Jr.
Adler’s trend pulse model adds context. Bitcoin moved out of bear mode and into neutral territory in early April. Short-term momentum has turned positive, though a full bullish signal would require the 30-day simple moving average to cross above the 200-day.
According to the data, every major liquidation wave so far has occurred while the trend sat in this neutral zone — a transition phase that has repeatedly caught short sellers off guard.
Rising Open Interest Adds To The Pressure
Bitcoin’s open interest across all exchanges climbed 6% to nearly $30 billion as of early May, its highest reading since Jan. 31. That increase means the market is more sensitive to sudden price moves — up or down.
Funding rates remain near -0.0045, a sign that short-side pressure is still active while long positions are not yet crowded.
Market analyst Coin Niel reported net exchange outflows of 837 BTC on May 5, following a much larger outflow of 6,590 BTC the previous Monday.
Sustained outflows typically reflect accumulation, as coins move off exchanges and into private wallets, reducing available supply for immediate sale.
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Bitcoin broke above a descending trendline that had capped price gains throughout April. The 100-day exponential moving average now sits just below the current price, acting as a dynamic floor.
The short-term holder cost basis aligns near $81,500, a level that keeps recent buyers in profit and may further reduce selling pressure in the near term.
Supply Zone Ahead, With A Big Drop Below
The $86,000 to $90,000 range represents a zone of prior selling activity — a cluster where sellers stepped in during the last recovery and pushed the price back down. That zone is the next major test for any continued rally.
Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView