Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report could inject volatility into the crypto market. Economists expect April job growth to slow sharply, with payrolls forecast to rise by just 62,000 compared with March’s 172,000, while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady around 4.3%, according to Reuters.
At first glance, weaker hiring data appears supportive for bitcoin and other risk assets. A softer labor market could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady this year and potentially delay any tightening cycle beyond that. As of now, markets are pricing in steady rates through this year, followed by a hike next year.
But the picture is more complicated.
Alongside the payrolls release, markets will also be watching wage growth closely. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.5% previously. Sticky wage pressures, combined with already elevated oil prices, could strengthen inflation concerns globally and complicate the Fed’s path forward.
In other words, the market reaction may hinge less on headline job creation and more on whether wage growth cools. With traders already pricing in the possibility of future rate hikes next year, risk assets may need a softer-than-expected earnings figure to stage a meaningful rally.
For now, analysts remain broadly constructive on bitcoin, with the $75,000 level seen as critical support.
“Bitcoin has returned below $80K, extending its retreat from the 200-day moving average after briefly entering overbought territory near the upper boundary of its uptrend channel. The lower boundary of that channel sits near $77.5K, though a broader trend break would likely require a fall below recent lows around $75K,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro.
Beyond payrolls, traders are also keeping an eye on the upcoming minutes of the Fed’s April meeting, as well as developments in the Strait of Hormuz and global oil markets.
“Prediction markets assign a 97% probability to no Hormuz normalization by May 15. The gap between that pricing and the equity market’s willingness to fade every escalation is the week’s defining contradiction,” Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a market note. “If crude fails to de-escalate before the May 20 FOMC minutes, the stagflation narrative will become much harder to dismiss.”
Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending
S&P 500 call options volume surges to record $2.6 trillion. Here’s what it means for bitcoin (CoinDesk): Record volumes of bullish S&P 500 call options signal a surge in speculative risk-taking on Wall Street, offering bullish cues to crypto, as the two are positively correlated.
Trump says ceasefire still holds after fighting between the U.S. and Iran flares (Reuters): U.S. and Iran clashed in the Gulf and the UAE came under renewed attack, but Trump said a ceasefire was still holding despite the attacks, which dented hopes for a swift end to the war.
U.S. stocks rise as tech outlook offsets war worries: market wrap. (Bloomberg): A rally in technology stocks is lifting U.S. index futures as investors wait for the monthly jobs report. Oil fluctuated. Benchmarks in Europe and Asia fell. Brent moved to just above $100 a barrel. The dollar headed for a second straight week of losses.
Federal court rules against new global tariffs Trump imposed after loss at the Supreme Court (AP): A federal court ruled against the new global tariffs that Trump imposed after a stinging loss at the Supreme Court. The Court of International Trade in New York ruling found the 10% global tariffs were illegal after small businesses sued.
Today’s signal
The chart by coinglass tracks the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the price difference between bitcoin traded on Coinbase, a proxy for U.S. institutional and spot demand, and offshore exchanges such as Binance. Green readings indicate BTC is trading at a premium on Coinbase, signaling stronger demand from U.S.-based investors.
The premium has flipped into a discount this week just as bitcoin looked to establish a foothold above $80,000. Interestingly, the rally has stalled.
Historically, bull runs have coincided with persistent positive readings in the index. The next move higher, therefore, warrants a return of the premium.