While global platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi remain blocked by Japan’s strict gambling laws, prediction markets are quietly taking root through domestic startups.
Their model borrows the same workaround that has allowed Japan’s $100 billion pachinko industry to operate for decades.
Global prediction market platforms cannot legally operate in Japan, but that has not stopped prediction markets from emerging. Domestic startups are adapting the same legal workaround that has allowed Japan’s pachinko industry to operate for decades.
Miraima app is a perfect example of the trend. Being just seven months old the app has already attracted one million monthly users. The platform lets users wager on sports, stocks, and political events using points rather than cash. Winnings are redeemed separately through gift cards and retail reward programmes, primarily PayPay and Rakuten.
The Pachinko Model Goes Digital
The structure is familiar to anyone who knows Japan’s pachinko industry.
Rather than paying cash directly, pachinko parlours award physical tokens that are exchanged for money through separate businesses.
Prediction market startups are applying the same principle digitally: users wager points inside the platform, while rewards are redeemed separately through third-party loyalty programmes.
“Since real-money gambling isn’t possible, we built the platform around Japan’s strong gaming and point-collecting culture,” Miraima founder Keita Adachi told Bloomberg.
Miraima describes itself as “Japan’s first” prediction market and a points activity app. In its own social media bio, the company says users can predict outcomes in areas such as politics and sports without betting money, then exchange correct predictions for gift vouchers.
The product presentation points in the same direction. Miraima displays event probabilities, market charts, trending topics, and sports categories in a format that closely resembles established prediction market platforms such as Polymarket.
International Platforms Take Different Routes
International operators have responded differently to Japan’s regulatory environment.
Polymarket recently appointed former Jupiter Japan head Mike Eidlin to lead its efforts in the country.
The company has publicly identified 2030 as its target for regulatory approval, coinciding with the opening of MGM Osaka, Japan’s first integrated casino resort.
Elsewhere, Polymarket and Kalshi continue accepting users in India despite the country’s evolving regulatory landscape. Japan, by contrast, remains a market where neither platform currently operates directly.
What It Means for Brokers
Japan remains closed to conventional prediction market products. At the same time, the rapid growth of point-based platforms suggests demand for event-based trading already exists under the current legal framework.
The model rests on a key legal distinction: users do not formally wager or receive cash directly through the platform itself. Lawyers following the market say that distinction remains defensible under current law, although future enforcement could ultimately test that interpretation.
Japan is also increasing the 2026 budget for its Casino Management Commission while expanding digital monitoring capabilities. Whether point-based prediction markets continue operating under the existing framework, or become part of a future regulated market, will depend on how regulators choose to apply existing gambling laws.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
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