Roughly 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss, meaning their holders paid more than today’s price, against 9.22 million still in profit, according to Glassnode data. It is the first time loss-making supply has overtaken profitable supply since the current cycle began and reflects how deep the correction from bitcoin’s $109,000 January peak has cut.
Historically, these crossovers have landed near periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among newer buyers. They have also marked the point at which coins migrate from weaker hands to stronger ones, since only holders with high conviction tend to sit on losses rather than sell. Long-term holder accumulation and rising wallet-cohort balances across several size brackets have run alongside this latest deterioration in profitability.
Bitcoin traded at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week, still roughly 51% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Ether added 4.2% to $1,702, and Solana led the majors at 18.6% on the week to $80.44, with volume running above $3.6 billion.
Whether the supply crossover marks a bottom depends on what follows. In 2018-19 and 2022, similar readings preceded months of basing before a sustained recovery. The chart does not resolve on its own. ETF flows returning and macro pressure easing are what convert the accumulation signal into a price signal.
CORRECT (07:45 UTC): Corrects all-time high in third paragraph.