As Solana (SOL) breaks out of a multi‑week pattern, some market observers suggest a retest of a key resistance level could be on the horizon. Nonetheless, they also warned that the next leg up could be short‑lived if momentum fails to hold.
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Solana Breakout Targets Key Resistance
On Wednesday, Solana jumped 4.2% on the daily timeframe, retesting the $90 area for the first time in nearly a month before retracing. The cryptocurrency has been in the $75 to $96 price range since the early February market crash, failing to reclaim the upper zone of this range during this period.
Amid today’s surge, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that Solana was breaking out of an eight-week symmetrical triangle formation, which could lead to a rally toward the local range’s upper boundary.
As he explained, a spike in buying pressure could push SOL’s price to $92, a key horizontal resistance over the past three months in the daily and weekly timeframes. If this level is reclaimed, the cryptocurrency’s breakout could extend toward $96, a level not retested since the mid-March market rally.
In addition, CryptoRand noted that after its recent price jump, Solana has also broken out of its eight-month downtrend, suggesting that a bullish reversal could be on the horizon if this level holds.
However, market observer Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that the altcoin has been consolidating within a 10% range for three months, recording its lowest volatility in years.
As a result, the analyst affirmed that a big move would happen sooner than later, but the direction “will entirely depend on which side breaks first. It won’t be a move to fade (…). Likely to see at least a 20-30% leg following the break of this compression.”
SOL To Rally Before Next Dump?
In an X post, Altcoin Sherpa noted that Solana has underperformed all other majors over the past few months. Unlike Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), SOL has not been able to retest or break out of its three-month range despite the recent market recovery.
The analyst affirmed that the altcoin needs bullish conditions and BTC’s price to stabilize to continue climbing higher. Meanwhile, More Crypto Online underscored the importance of SOL’s overall context in a video analysis.
He explained that “on the higher timeframe, there is no sign whatsoever that we have a meaningful low in place,” and that “the upside reaction from the February low was just too weak. And the structure that’s even more important does not currently support a long-term rally.”
The analyst pointed out that there is “a lot of resistance along the way,” but noted that a counter-trend rally to the $110-$140 area is “a very reasonable expectation” to form a top as long as the February lows hold.
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Nonetheless, he considers that “from there, there’s a good chance of going lower, possibly either in a fifth wave down to complete a larger correction in a so-called wave four, or like Bitcoin, the expectation is a more meaningful correction into the mid $30 region.”
“So, the market might just need to move up a little bit to complete this correction. Make the crowd bullish again so that the new sellers can come in,” he concluded.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com