Capital keeps flowing into the category through acquisitions, broker distribution, and new sports sponsorships. The legal question of who gets to regulate it, however, is still wide open.
Here’s what mattered this week.
IG Group’s Underdog deal pulls more brokers into prediction markets
IG Group agreed on July 30 to acquire prediction markets operator Underdog for up to $1.3 billion, split between $1.1 billion upfront and a $200 million earnout. The price equals 2.4x Underdog’s trailing net revenue. CEO Breon Corcoran called prediction markets “just a different title for what used to be binaries in Europe”.
Other brokers have been moving into the category for months. Plus500 partnered with Kalshi on event contracts earlier this year, offering retail access to CFTC-regulated markets through its Plus500 Futures platform.
IG’s move continues that trend: this week, tastytrade joined Robinhood and moomoo in launching CFTC-regulated prediction markets of its own, and Binance.US said it plans to apply for a CFTC licence in August.
44 States Tell the CFTC to Rewrite its Prediction Markets Rule
The CFTC has been drafting a formal review process for event contracts tied to sensitive categories, including sports, gaming, war, terrorism, assassination, that would give the agency power to approve or block specific contract types under Rule 40.11.
States have pushed back, arguing that sports contracts in particular are gambling products that belong under state law, not federal commodities rules.
That fight escalated on July 27. Attorneys general from 44 states, led by Ohio’s Andy Wilson, filed a letter as the public comment period on the CFTC’s proposed Rule 40.11 amendments closed. The letter argues the agency exceeded its statutory authority and asks it to withdraw the rule and draft a new one.
The same day brought the opposite signal. A federal judge blocked Minnesota’s felony ban on prediction markets days before it was due to take effect, ruling that federal law likely preempts the state’s attempt to criminalise the platforms. It’s the first ruling to freeze a criminal state-level ban on those grounds.
Novig Becomes the First Prediction Market Sponsor of an MLB Team
Novig became the Exclusive Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Mets on July 30 — the first partnership between an individual MLB franchise and a prediction market platform. The multi-year deal covers Citi Field signage, broadcast branding and digital content. The deal follows Novig’s designation as a CFTC Designated Contract Market, ahead of a nationwide launch next month. It also folds the platform into MLB’s integrity programme, alongside the league’s existing market-monitoring framework.
The deal extends a pattern set at the league level. MLB itself named Polymarket its official prediction market exchange in March. The league also signed an information-sharing agreement with the CFTC covering market integrity.
The NHL, MLS and UFC have similar league-wide arrangements. Individual teams have moved separately: Polymarket sponsors the New York Rangers, while Kalshi has partnered with the Chicago Blackhawks. Novig’s deal with the Mets is the first to do that at the franchise level in baseball specifically.
Bottom Line
This week, prediction markets attracted a $1.3 billion acquisition, a 44-state legal challenge to their primary federal regulator, and their first team-level Major League Baseball sponsorship.
IG Group bought into the category and 44 states told the CFTC to scrap its rule in the same week. The CFTC’s Rule 40.11 amendments — the rule those states just asked it to withdraw — are still pending a final version.
Capital keeps flowing into the category through acquisitions, broker distribution, and new sports sponsorships. The legal question of who gets to regulate it, however, is still wide open.
Here’s what mattered this week.
IG Group’s Underdog deal pulls more brokers into prediction markets
IG Group agreed on July 30 to acquire prediction markets operator Underdog for up to $1.3 billion, split between $1.1 billion upfront and a $200 million earnout. The price equals 2.4x Underdog’s trailing net revenue. CEO Breon Corcoran called prediction markets “just a different title for what used to be binaries in Europe”.
Other brokers have been moving into the category for months. Plus500 partnered with Kalshi on event contracts earlier this year, offering retail access to CFTC-regulated markets through its Plus500 Futures platform.
IG’s move continues that trend: this week, tastytrade joined Robinhood and moomoo in launching CFTC-regulated prediction markets of its own, and Binance.US said it plans to apply for a CFTC licence in August.
44 States Tell the CFTC to Rewrite its Prediction Markets Rule
The CFTC has been drafting a formal review process for event contracts tied to sensitive categories, including sports, gaming, war, terrorism, assassination, that would give the agency power to approve or block specific contract types under Rule 40.11.
States have pushed back, arguing that sports contracts in particular are gambling products that belong under state law, not federal commodities rules.
That fight escalated on July 27. Attorneys general from 44 states, led by Ohio’s Andy Wilson, filed a letter as the public comment period on the CFTC’s proposed Rule 40.11 amendments closed. The letter argues the agency exceeded its statutory authority and asks it to withdraw the rule and draft a new one.
The same day brought the opposite signal. A federal judge blocked Minnesota’s felony ban on prediction markets days before it was due to take effect, ruling that federal law likely preempts the state’s attempt to criminalise the platforms. It’s the first ruling to freeze a criminal state-level ban on those grounds.
Novig Becomes the First Prediction Market Sponsor of an MLB Team
Novig became the Exclusive Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Mets on July 30 — the first partnership between an individual MLB franchise and a prediction market platform. The multi-year deal covers Citi Field signage, broadcast branding and digital content. The deal follows Novig’s designation as a CFTC Designated Contract Market, ahead of a nationwide launch next month. It also folds the platform into MLB’s integrity programme, alongside the league’s existing market-monitoring framework.
The deal extends a pattern set at the league level. MLB itself named Polymarket its official prediction market exchange in March. The league also signed an information-sharing agreement with the CFTC covering market integrity.
The NHL, MLS and UFC have similar league-wide arrangements. Individual teams have moved separately: Polymarket sponsors the New York Rangers, while Kalshi has partnered with the Chicago Blackhawks. Novig’s deal with the Mets is the first to do that at the franchise level in baseball specifically.
Bottom Line
This week, prediction markets attracted a $1.3 billion acquisition, a 44-state legal challenge to their primary federal regulator, and their first team-level Major League Baseball sponsorship.
IG Group bought into the category and 44 states told the CFTC to scrap its rule in the same week. The CFTC’s Rule 40.11 amendments — the rule those states just asked it to withdraw — are still pending a final version.